The Hundred Secret Senses Essay Example For Students

The Hundred Secret Senses Essay In ?the hundred secret senses? by Amy Tan, it slowly shows how Olivia?s character portrays the sister she was cut out to be. Amy Tan makes the readers recognize how Olivia treated her half-sister, Kwan and also how she progressed with her relationship towards Kwan. Olivia somewhat treated Kwan with disrespect, for example, she would tell her stupid meanings of things that did not make sense because she felt irritated or annoyed by her company. Olivia basically only thought of her own needs and was deeply frustrated with Kwan living with the family but there would be times when Olivia would feel for her and treat her with respect. In the beginning of the story, Olivia was very young and confused. She had lost her father at such a young age and did not understand why he had died. Her father?s last wish to the mother was to look for his daughter, Kwan, whom he has not seen and bring her to live in America. Kwan was not that excited about having a new sister living in the house. She thou ght that her mother would have less time for her. Kwan?s relationship with Olivia was thought to be wonderful for her. On the other hand, Olivia was practically annoyed and irritated by Kwan and her stories. Their relationship grew in ways that were unexplainable because of Olivia?s actions towards Kwan. But I thought those actions of hers was her way of saying that she loved Kwan very much!Kwan was more like a mother for Olivia since her mom was hardly around. Kwan took care of Olivia through out the whole story. Olivia tried to be distant with Kwan as they grew older but Kwan always insisted on getting together or just making surprise visits. The tremendous outcome where Kwan and Olivia?s relationship with each other even more or it deepened was when they had gone to China (Simon, Kwan, and Olivia) together. A terrible thing had happened when they had arrived in China and were on their way to Changmain to visit ?Big Ma? and the rest of Kwan?s family or close friends. Big Ma had go tten into an accident along with others who were also on the same bus with her. Big Ma had answers for Kwan and Olivia that they wanted to know. Having this happen, Kwan became quiet but yet still calm. Another tragedy also happened that shut down Olivia and made her become a little on the crazy side was when she thought Simon was lost or dead. Kwan and Olivia?s relationship grew even closer than you can imagine. They camped out together hoping and waiting for Simon to appear and in that time being they were bonding with each other. Olivia recognized the love for her sister. We will write a custom essay on The Hundred Secret Senses specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now Bibliography:book

Redress for Japanese Americans essays

Redress for Japanese Americans essays The Lengthy Process of Redress for Japanese Americans After the surprise attack of the Japanese on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, the United States grew concerned that people of Japanese ancestry living on the West Coast would revolt and aid the Japanese war effort and were considered security risks. On February 19, 1942, President Franklin Roosevelt signed Executive Order 9066, giving the War Department authority to establish military areas in which designated people would be subject to whatever restrictions the Secretary of War may impose. As a result, officials declared the entire Pacific Coast a military area and forced approximately 120,000 people of Japanese descent from their homes and into guarded relocation centers in Arizona, California, Oregon, and Washington. Two-thirds of the evacuees were American citizens and many lost their homes and businesses as a result of the internment. The directive remained official policy until December 1944 (Patton 72). While many people have at least some knowledge of this Japanese in ternment, the postwar Japanese American effort to win redress, and its high point of the 1980s, is not that well known. The process of apology and redress was very drawn out and it was not until over forty years after internment that a formal apology was given to Japanese Americans. With this apology, though delayed, most would assume that the government has learned a lesson from its past errors. However, it is important to consider if the anti-Japanese hysteria of the 1940s that led to Japanese-Americans being imprisoned in internment camps could be repeated today, especially with Muslim-Americans in the war against terrorism. The internment of Japanese American citizens and resident aliens was not just an odd, wartime event, but also a climax of a long history of racism and discrimination on the West Coast directed against Asian immigrants. Those from China felt the first effects of this sent...

Detailed explanations of the IOT (internet of things) and implications Essay

Detailed explanations of the IOT (internet of things) and implications technology - Essay Example This will be made possible through the increased connectivity between the physical items and the virtual world (Mattern & Floerkemeier, 2010). The Internet of Things is not created by a single novel technology. However, it is made up of a variety of technical developments that create the capacity to bridge the existing gap between virtual and physical world. The capacities that would be created include communication and cooperation, addressability, identification, sensing, actuation, embedded information processing, localization and user interfaces (Mattern & Floerkemeier, 2010). The objects through communication and cooperation would have the capabilities to network between each other as well as with the internet sources, and to update their state using data and services. In addressability, the objects have the capacity to be remotely configured and interrogated through effective location and address through discovery. The physical objects will also be uniquely identified. The optically readable bar codes and the Near Field Communication are just a few of the technologies that incapacitate passive objects that lack inbuilt energy resources to be identifiable. With sensing, the objects will be or are equipped with sensors enabling them to collect data, record and interpret it accordingly then forward or reacts to it. They also have actuators for environment manipulation. They have microcontrollers, processors, in addition to storage capacities. By localization, the objects are conscious of their physical locations or better still can be located. With the user interfaces, the objects are able to effectively communicate with people in appropriate and relevant manner. The concept is premised on the trends witnessed towards the end of the 20th century, where there exist gradual advances in communication and information technology, as well as in microelectronics. These changes

All forms of government welfare should be abolished Essay - 4

All forms of government welfare should be abolished - Essay Example money that is given to people who will not work even though they are physically able to will only encourage laziness and cause the economy of a nation to suffer. In most cases, unpleasant circumstances usually perfect a person’s character in the long term. The type of dependent behavior that is invariably encouraged by welfare just destroys a person’s capacity to grow. The American welfare program provides enough proof of the inadequacies of welfare. This program, while created to encourage jobless citizens to get inspired to look for work and sustain themselves, has only inspired a sense of entitlement in unemployed grown adults. The United States has become a foster parent of capable people who refuse to help themselves. Even though the American government began to provide welfare options for its needy citizens in the 60s, the poverty level has stayed the same, even though government welfare funds have continued to increase on a constant basis. At present, the American government sponsors 70 welfare programs at nearly $1 trillion annually (Voegelli, 2012). This figure is almost 13 times what it was when the welfare program was started in the 1960s (Voegelli, 2012). Put your claim/position and â€Å"evidence† through the â€Å"Scientific Method† and â€Å"Proving a theory† steps. Are there any steps on which your claim/position and evidence do not measure up to the examination? If so, what can you do to make them more acceptable? According to the American Census Bureau statistics in 2010, there are 114.8 million family units in America. If 34.2% of American families  seek assistance from welfare programs, this implies that roughly 39.3 million American homes get welfare benefits on a monthly basis. The American government spent more than $451.9 Billion on welfare expenditures in 2012. To expand one’s knowledge as regards welfare, this means that every family that was accepted as a welfare case received $11,500 that year. According to Voegelli (2012), the

Economic Booms of China and India Essay Example for Free

Economic Booms of China and India Essay It has been well known that China and India are having an economic boom whilst the west is in a recession. The question is whether China and India are going to slip into a recession as their rate of growth is thought to be â€Å"unhealthy†, this would put the western countries back into recession which is a very worrying prospect for a slowly recovering western world. China’s GDP (growth domestic product) is now over $4,211 billion a growth from $53 billion in 1978. China is between a LEDC and a MEDC and is growing at a extremely fast rate which is thought to be â€Å"unhealthy†. China’s main port (which there are 200 of) are growing at a huge rate which cannot be sustainable the Port of Shenzhen is growing at over 25% annually to provide the world which China made products. The port is home to 39 shipping companies who have launched 131 international container routes. There are 560 ships on call at Shenzhen port on a monthly basis and also 21 feeder routes to other ports in the Pearl River Delta region. China just had a deceleration in growth which worried the whole world. The slowdown can be blamed on a variety of factors. Chinas government was aiming for a slight deceleration, as it tried to tame its real estate boom and rapid inflation. While the rate still is allot faster than the growth in the United Kingdom, it marks an uncomfortable soft patch for China. Over the last three decades, the country has barrelled ahead at an average of about 10% a year. This shows that the â€Å"unhealthy† growth of China of an average of 10% will eventually slow down and bring the whole world into a very bad recession. The economy of India is the eleventh largest in the world by nominal GDP and the third largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). The country is one of the G-20 major economies and a member of BRICS. On a per capita income basis, India ranked 140th by nominal GDP and 129th by GDP (PPP) in 2011, according to the IMF. However India’s economic growth is also much higher than it is in the western world but I believe their growth is much healthier than the growth in China. India’s industry only accounts for 28% of its GDP whereas in China that number is much higher. China and India share many similarities as they are both growing at a huge rate but China’s growth is mainly in industry which is much less sustainable. China is also relying on  the fact communism remains strong and doesn’t crash because if it does wages will rise and put western countries in recession. India designs much more unique high quality products which is much more sustainable than China’s large scale low quality batch production which is much less sustainable and that is the reason I believe that China is the biggest threat to the western world. I believe that China is the biggest threat to the western countries and would put the whole world into recession. Therefore I believe the countries should stop relying on China so heavily because China controls the whole world. If China did not believe in something a county did it could stop the exports to that country which would hugely affect that country. Therefore I believe that it is a threat to the west. I do not believe that India is YET such a threat as China but in less than 10 years I belive it may be just as much of a problem as china.

The Problem of Sustainability Essay -- essays research papers

In this chapter the author David Orr explains the causes of our unfortunate condition from the social confining situation to those that are inevitable part of human condition. As the author looks into the future three crises will be imminent: the food crisis as result of worldwide soil losses and rapidly expands of population, The cheap energy, the race between the fossil fuels and the solar energy, and the climate change. This has to do with the limits of the natural resource. Besides these crises the writer mentions the crisis of the spiritual resources. Human need a new vision of the link them to the planet in a more life-centered. The crisis as a social trap is part of lucid behavior in situation typified by multiple but conflicting rewards. The rewards are short terms but the costs are long term and paid by all. One of the solutions that will deter the human to get into those traps will be if the costs are paid up front as part of the purchase price. Effort to build a sustainable society on assumption human rationality must be regarded as partial solution. Recognition of these social traps and making policies to avoid them will help in building sustainable society. The crisis as consequence of the economic growth has to do with the propensity of all industrial society to grow beyond the limits of the natural systems. Human use 40 percent of the net productivity of the ecosystem on the planet, changing the was the climate, exterminating species, and toxifying ecosys...

Poland Business Cycle

This Country Focus analyses and interprets the statistical characteristics of the Polish business cycle. It also identifies leading and lagging variables and shows that the economic fluctuations in Poland differ to some extent from those in other emerging and mature economies, with Polish growth notably more volatile and government expenditure highly erratic. The available data on GDP growth suggest that the Polish economy is approaching the peak of the second business cycle since the start of economic transformation from a centrally planned to a market economy.The current upswing is to some extent similar to the one of 1995-1997 which ended in large macroeconomic imbalances (increasing unemployment, spare capacity, widening fiscal and current account deficits). However, Poland now appears to be better positioned than after the last cycle and should be able to avoid a repeat of that outcome. Business cycles in emerging market economies Although the economic literature on business cyc les is vast, only recently have some papers on business cycles in emerging market economies appeared.Usually they analyse economic fluctuations within particular countries (e. g. Benczur and Ratfai, 2005) or make some cross-country comparisons (e. g. Aguayo et al. , 2004 or Carmignani, 2005). A common methodology used in the analysis of business cycles (based on observations of mature economies and economic theory) distinguishes pro-cyclical, counter-cyclical and a-cyclical variables. Pro-cyclical variables fluctuate together with GDP (e. g. industrial production, investment, employment, inflation), countercyclical variables against GDP (e. g. nemployment, net exports) and a-cyclical variables independently of GDP (e. g. real interest rates). 1 With respect to timing, the ‘stylised facts' of the business cycle identify leading, lagging and coincident variables: leading variables move ahead of GDP (e. g. average labour productivity, inventory investment, money supply), lagging variables follow GDP (e. g. inflation, nominal interest rates) and coincident variables, as the name suggests, move coincidentally with GDP (e. g. industrial production, consumption, employment) (Snowdon & Vane, 2005, p. 306).Overall, business cycles in emerging market economies (Carmignani, 2005)2 are not much different from those in mature economies (Snowdon and Vane, 2005, p. 306), By Michal Narozny* The business cycle in Poland: where do we stand? Highlights in this issue: †¢ While on the whole not different from mature economies, the properties of the business cycle in Poland display some special characteristics †¢ The current cycle seems to have reached a peak but the slowdown is likely not to be as pronounced as in the previous cycle Volume IV, Issue 9 03. 08. 2007 ECFIN COUNTRY FOCUS Directorate for the Economies of the Member States. The views expressed in the ECFIN Country Focus belong to the authors only and do not necessarily correspond to those of the Director ate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs or the European Commission.Economic analysis from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Identification of direction and timing is key in business cycle analysis ECFIN Country Focus Volume IV, Issue 9 Page 2 but economies in transition (though they do not constitute a homogeneous group) display some specific characteristics: overall, the economy is much more volatile than in the euro area, which is the consequence of structural changes and catching-up, †¢ shocks are slightly less persistent than in the euro area, and fluctuations consequently more frequent, †¢ government consumption is more erratic than in the euro area, suggesting a significant discretionary element in fiscal policies, but not one that is necessarily aimed at cyclical stabilisation, †¢ employment is a-cyclical in some, but pro-cyclical in other emerging economies, †¢ inflation in emerging economies is volatile and not clearly pro-cyclical.Table 1 shows some tentative analysis of the key macroeconomic variables in the Polish business cycle. All variables (except for inflation and net exports) were logtransformed, de-seasonalised by means of the X. 12 method and later de-trended using the HP filter. Net exports were expressed as a ratio to GDP and deseasonalised by means of the multiplicative X. 11 method before being de-trended. Volatility of cyclical fluctuations, and hence the magnitude of the business cycle, is measured by the standard deviation. Polish GDP volatility is about 0. 015, compared to 0. 08 for the euro area. The persistence of cyclical fluctuations is measured by the auto-correlation coefficient: the closer to 1, the more persistent the shock (and the longer it takes to absorb it) and therefore the less fluctuation in the business cycle. Testing for the Polish business cycle persistence yields a coefficient of 0. 55 compared to 0. 85 for the euro area. Table 1. Su mmary statistics of business cycle fluctuations in Poland Correlations with the cyclical component of GDP Poland Standard Autodeviation correlation -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 GDP 0. 015 0. 550 1Industrial production 3. 317 0. 730 -0. 018 0. 154 0. 314 0. 515 0. 771 0. 599 0. 444 0. 229 0. 113 Private consumption 0. 013 0. 269 0. 015 0. 079 0. 283 0. 433 0. 434 0. 385 0. 463 0. 380 0. 037 Government consumption 0. 020 0. 001 -0. 200 0. 007 0. 230 0. 022 -0. 211 0. 175 0. 282 0. 199 0. 051 GFCF 0. 070 0. 717 0. 357 0. 399 0. 403 0. 484 0. 824 0. 585 0. 371 0. 313 0. 344 Inventories 1. 189 -0. 072 -0. 139 0. 044 0. 021 0. 074 0. 199 0. 187 0. 150 0. 177 0. 230 Net exports 0. 012 0. 574 -0. 061 -0. 174 -0. 386 -0. 373 -0. 326 -0. 513 -0. 497 -0. 389 -0. 452 Exports 0. 58 -0. 005 0. 098 0. 199 0. 177 0. 225 0. 594 -0. 018 0. 030 -0. 016 -0. 193 Imports 0. 063 0. 378 0. 097 0. 252 0. 350 0. 408 0. 672 0. 377 0. 384 0. 258 0. 175 Employment 0. 017 0. 857 0. 291 0. 372 0. 411 0. 452 0. 545 0. 40 9 0. 333 0. 355 0. 344 Labour productivity 0. 354 0. 512 0. 120 0. 090 0. 056 0. 070 0. 133 0. 257 0. 109 0. 026 -0. 142 Money supply (M1) 0. 041 0. 776 -0. 078 -0. 060 0. 092 0. 260 0. 475 0. 472 0. 535 0. 505 0. 432 Inflation 1. 819 0. 779 0. 092 0. 321 0. 511 0. 596 0. 473 0. 290 0. 082 -0. 082 -0. 146 CPI 1. 737 0. 777 0. 086 0. 255 0. 411 0. 422 0. 00 0. 082 -0. 075 -0. 167 -0. 184 Real interest rate 0. 655 0. 942 0. 226 0. 279 0. 302 0. 263 0. 135 0. 132 0. 120 0. 092 0. 088 Source: Own estimates. Data source: Eurostat. Sample: 1995Q3 – 2007Q1 Summary statistics Lags Leads Business cycles in Poland – what is different and what is alike The analysis of the Polish cycle yields a number stylised facts, which are to some degree typical for emerging economies. Table 2 summarises a number of stylised facts on business cycles in mature economies and in Poland (bearing in mind the relatively short time span for the latter).It shows that some of the usual characteristics of business cycles in mature economies (or even in emerging economies) are not seen in Poland. Where this is the case, some interpretation is offered. Industrial production is usually pro-cyclical and coincident in both mature and emerging economies, but in Poland it has a slightly leading property, which indicates the importance of industrial production as a driver of the business cycle. In the aggregate demand components, private consumption seems to be procyclical in Poland.However, it is not coincident as in mature economies, and has a lead-lag profile that is not typical: it is almost flat over four quarters with some lead. Hence, although private consumption is the largest component of GDP, the dynamic relation over time between the two variables is erratic, possibly indicating consumption smoothing, which is characteristic of low-income economies. However, the ratio of the standard deviation of private consumption to the standard deviation of GDP (by which consumption smoothi ng is usually judged) is estimated at 0. 8, i. e. higher than the upper bound of the normal range reported in the literature. 3 This suggests that consumption smoothing is not present in Poland, which might indicate lower risk aversion and/or underdevelopment of financial markets. The Polish business cycle displays some characteristic properties Business fluctuations in Poland are highly volatile and persistent ECFIN Country Focus Volume IV, Issue 9 Page 3 Table 2. The ‘stylised facts' about business cycles in mature economies and Poland Variable Mature economies* Poland** category VariableDirection Timing Direction Timing Supply side Industrial production pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical coincident/leading Private consumption pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical erratic Government consumption pro-cyclical erratic counter-cyclical /erratic erratic GFCF pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical coincident Inventories pro-cyclical leading pro-cyclical leading Net exports counter- cyclical coincident/ lagging counter-cyclical erratic Exports pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical coincident Demand components Imports pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical coincidentLabour Employment pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical coincident/lagging market Labour productivity pro-cyclical leading pro-cyclical leading Money supply pro-cyclical leading pro-cyclical leading Monetary Inflation pro-cyclical lagging pro-cyclical lagging variables Real Interest rates a-cyclical erratic pro-cyclical lagging * Features commonly found in the literature. Main source: Snowdon ; Vane (2005) ** See Table 1 Source: Own calculations (see Table 1) and Snowdon ; Vane (2005) Government consumption seems to be neither systematically counter- nor procyclical.High volatility and a very low persistence (i. e. frequent fluctuations of sizeable magnitude) point to an irregular pattern of government consumption, suggesting an important role of discretionary fiscal policies, which is a distinctive feat ure of emerging economies (Carmignani, 2005) and possibly related to the existence of a political cycle in public finances. Gross fixed capital formation appears to be coincident, highly pro-cyclical and persistent (auto-correlation of 0. 2) and inventories behave according to the ‘stylised facts': they are pro-cyclical and leading (though less so than in mature economies). Finally, both exports and imports can be seen as pro-cyclical, but imports slightly more so than exports, which is in line with the features of mature, but not emerging economies where exports are a-cyclical on average. Moreover, imports seem to be quite persistent (following persistent GFCF), unlike exports (which depend on external demand); both variables are highly volatile (standard deviations are more than the double of the euro-area).Net exports are moderately counter-cyclical with an erratic pattern over time (due to persistent imports), whereas in mature economies net exports are also counter-cyclic al, but usually coincident or lagging. With respect to the labour market, employment shows up as pro-cyclical and coincident, with some evidence of lagging, which places Poland somewhere in the middle between mature and emerging economies in this respect. Labour productivity appears to be pro-cyclical and leading, in line with the ‘stylised facts', though the leading property is less pronounced than in mature economies.Pro-cyclicality of employment with its smooth and slightly lagged correlation profile suggests labour hoarding (Burnside et al. , 1993). Among the monetary variables, the money supply apears to be pro-cyclical and leading. Inflation seems to be pro-cyclical and to follow GDP as in mature economies, which is not the case in most emerging economies (where inflation is acyclical – see Carmignani, 2005). This is probably due to the fact that at the beginning of the transformation process all emerging economies had very high inflation rates that systematically decreased.Thus, it is hard to discern a clear cyclical pattern. Poland managed to achieve relatively low inflation sooner than other emerging countries, allowing this pro-cyclicality to be revealed earlier. Contrary to the ‘stylised facts' for mature (but also emerging) economies, where real interest rates are a-cyclical with no clear pattern with respect to timing, real interest rates in Poland show up as being pro-cyclical and lagging, implying a countercyclical monetary policy (coefficient of correlation with GDP is 0. 4 and there is a clear lagging pattern). Smooth and lagged correlation profile of pro-cyclical employment suggests labour hoarding The irregular pattern of government consumption suggests that discretionary fiscal policies play an important role ECFIN Country Focus Volume IV, Issue 9 Page 4 Troughs, peaks and the drivers of growth The first economic cycle since the beginning of economic transition lasted about 10 years, with the expansion and slowdown phases each spanning about 5 years; the cycle ended in the second quarter of 2001.The current upswing has already lasted 6 years, which suggests that the peak is imminent if the length of the current cycle is similar to the previous one. Decelerating leading variables (industrial production, net exports and labour productivity) may also be signs of a turning point. Chart 1. Developments of basic economic variables in Poland in 1991-2008 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 % 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 % CA deficit (% of GDP) Unemployment rate (rhs) CPI inflation (rhs) GDP growth Fiscal deficit (lhs)Source: Commission services In both the early 1990s and in 2001, when the economy was at its trough, there was a large unutilised labour supply and substantial reserves in enterprises’ capacity utilisation. The fiscal deficit was also substantial. In the first cycle, ample supply of resources was a consequence of t ransition to a market economy which caused a recession in 1990-1991. In 2001-2002 it followed from the world economic slowdown and a restrictive monetary policy, which forced Polish enterprises to reorganise to raise their competitiveness and efficiency. Poland got out of the trough twice hanks to exogenous impulses to investment: the restructuring of the London Club debt in 1994 (which brought the first major wave of FDI) and entry into the EU in 2004 (which led to an inflow of EU funds). The external circumstances were also favourable as the world economy expanded in the nineties until 1998 and has been on a stable growth path since 2003. Chart 2. Contributions to GDP growth in Poland in 1991-2008 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 % total consumption GFCF Inventories Net exports GDP growthSource: Commission services The main factor that drove real GDP growth in 1995-1997 to about 7% was dynamic domest ic demand growth of 8? % on average, supported by robust consumption (about 5 percentage points contribution to GDP growth on average). Despite the fact that the economy was growing above potential and domestic demand was growing significantly faster than GDP, a strong zloty appreciation (with a temporary blip in 2000) ensured that the disinflation process was not disturbed. However, this There are indications that the Polish business cycle has approached a peak Large acroeconomic imbalance during the troughs ECFIN Country Focus Volume IV, Issue 9 Page 5 situation led to a fast-growing imbalance on the current account: the 2% of GDP surplus in 1994 fell to a deficit of 6% of GDP in 1999 (to which the Russian crisis also contributed). Growth outlook based on solid foundations for now It is estimated that the Polish economy is currently expanding at a pace close to its potential (approximated at 5. 9% in 2007), on the back of rising domestic demand, which is likely to be followed by i ncreasing imports and a deteriorating current account balance.The growth of gross fixed capital formation accelerated to 17% in 2006 and to nearly 30% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2007. Private consumption increased at 5. 2% in 2006 and stepped up to 6. 9% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2007, which is significantly higher than the 2. 7% average growth in 2000-2003. So far, this expansion of consumption has not led to a rapid increase in the current account deficit (which rose from 1. 7% in 2005 to 2. 3% of GDP in 2006) or a rise in inflation (which has come in below the central bank's medium-term inflation target of 2. % for eight quarters in a row), mainly thanks to moderate real wage growth. However, with a tightening labour market, emerging skill mismatches and workforce emigration the pressure on wages is expected to become more significant, contributing to a further increase of consumption. In consequence, it might lead to an escalation of the external imbalance and/or increase d inflation. Nevertheless, GDP growth in the current phase seems to be based on more solid foundations than in the late 1990s: †¢ Firstly, the share of exports in GDP has nearly tripled in 1992-2006 to about 40%; the number of exporters has also increased considerably.The structure of exports has improved, with a bigger share of processed goods and a higher value added. Foreign direct investment has helped increase the production capacity of the Polish economy, which enables the domestic market to better meet increased private demand, and makes the balance of payments less prone to fluctuations in domestic demand. In addition, increased investment-driven imports are largely balanced by increased exports on account of a good situation in the external environment. †¢ Secondly, the floating exchange rate is likely to act as a buffer against imported inflation.However, even without a strong zloty appreciation, inflation in Poland during the coming years is expected to stay rel atively low: below or around the central bank's medium-term inflation target of 2. 5%. As the Polish economy is now more open than 10 years ago, inflation is more influenced by global factors. Increased exposure of Polish enterprises to international competition limits their ability to freely increase prices and wages. They are forced to increase labour productivity faster than wages to maintain their market position. Thus, even with growing wage demands, enterprises are more willing to decrease mark-ups than to raise prices. Thirdly, increased household incomes acquired as a result of higher wages and an improved labour market situation may not translate into consumption to the same extent as in the previous economic cycle. There is evidence that households are now more saturated with basic durable and consumption goods which they lacked before4 and are more eager to spend additional income on holidays abroad owing to a more mature service sector. Financial markets are more develop ed than 10 years ago, giving an opportunity for financial investments. ConclusionsThe business cycle in Poland exhibits similar properties to cycles in mature economies, but there are some notable differences for government consumption, net exports and real interest rates (although for the last variable the picture may be blurred by its very high level at the beginning of the transformation process). However, because the data series are short, the results should be interpreted with caution. The irregular behaviour of government consumption in Poland with respect to influence on the business cycle could be related to a discretionary fiscal policy implemented within a political business cycle.GDP growth is based on more solid foundations in the current cycle ECFIN Country Focus Volume IV, Issue 9 Page 6 The analysis of the previous upswing in Poland, the identification of variables with leading properties with respect to GDP, and the latest developments all seem to suggest that the Po lish economy might have reached the peak of the current cycle in the first quarter of 2007. Nevertheless, thanks to the ongoing process of restructuring of the economy, the slowdown phase is not likely to be as pronounced as in the previous cycle and should not lead to major imbalances.